As mortgage rates remain above 6% and buyers wonder whether they should wait for better terms, I asked ChatGPT to analyze what experts predict for mortgage rates throughout 2026.
Artificial intelligence from multiple forecasting agencies, economic indicators and real estate market analysts to paint a picture of where prices are directed. The short version? They will probably go down, but don’t expect a dramatic fall.
ChatGPT reported that as of January 2026, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is between 6.09% and 6.19%. It’s near the lowest point in over three years, but still significantly higher than ultra-low rates which borrowers benefited from in the early 2020s.
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The overall takeaway from the AI is that mortgage rates will decline slightly in 2026, but will not return to pandemic-era lows. Most forecasts analyzed by ChatGPT place the 30-year average rate between 6.0% and 6.3% for the year.
Some projections are becoming more optimistic, suggesting rates could fall below 6% by mid-to-late 2026, potentially reaching the 5.7% to 5.9% range at times. But ChatGPT cautioned that these lower rates would likely be brief periods rather than sustained levels.
ChatGPT pointed out that not everyone agrees on where exactly the rates should go. Fannie Mae expects rates at the end of 2026 to be around 5.9%, while the Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts something closer to 6.4%. Other analysts at Redfin and the National Association of Home Builders see rates between 6.1% and 6.3%.
The range of forecasts shows that there is real uncertainty about how economic factors will evolve over the next year.
ChatGPT analyzed three main factors that influence the direction mortgage rates take.
The IA explained that even though mortgage rates don’t move in lockstep with the Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate, Fed policy remains important. The Fed’s rate cuts in 2024 and 2025 have helped push long-term rates lower. If the The Fed cuts rates or keeps them stable in 2026, this could allow a slight drop in mortgage costs.
But ChatGPT pointed out that 10-year Treasuries are actually the main driver of mortgage prices, and those yields remain relatively high compared to pandemic lows.
If inflation continues to moderate, this could lead to lower rates. But strong jobs data or persistent inflation could keep yields and mortgage rates higher than expected. The AI made it clear that economic surprises in either direction could quickly change rate forecasts.
