Europe’s best-performing blue chip stock in 2025 is set to be bought by a bigger rival, in a deal that analysts say could be worth as much as $23 billion.
Abivaxthe French clinical-stage biotechnology company developing treatment for ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease, saw its shares rise 1,681% last year, far outpacing the Stoxx 600 Index second best performing stock, mining company Fresnillowhich increased by 453%.
Now the big question for analysts appears to be when, not if, Abivax will announce a deal.
The title, listed in 2015, fluctuated widely between 10 and 20 euros but it was only 10 years later that it really took off.. Shares jumped 510% a day after Abivax announced results in July from a late-stage trial of an ulcerative colitis drug, beating even the most optimistic expectations. After these kinds of results, this could be a strategic acquisition for any major pharmaceutical company with a franchise in immunology and inflammation.
AbivaxThe main – and only – active ingredient, obefazimod, was first developed as a treatment for HIV, but researchers found that its anti-inflammatory effect could affect other conditions like inflammatory bowel disease (MII) and began clinical trials.
Stocks rose further in December when rumors emerged that the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical company, Eli Lilly, aimed to acquire Abivax. Both companies have repeatedly declined to comment on their business development activities.
An imminent agreement?
Analysts believe a deal could be reached at any time.
Sebastiaan van der Schoot, an analyst at Van Lanschot Kempen, told CNBC that biotechs “often have a relatively small number of employees and have no experience selling a drug,” which he called a “completely different ball game” compared to their development.
“That’s why the pharmaceutical industry is looking to them to really leverage their infrastructure,” he said.
The analyst added that he expected Abivax to trade between its current level and where it was when rumors of a buyout surfaced, leading up to the JP Morgan Healthcare annual conference on Monday, where companies often announce major deals.
Abivax shares have surged in 2025, significantly outperforming their European peers.
It comes like Big Pharma did acceleration of negotiations in recent months, as the industry faces a looming patent cliff, where some of the world’s best-selling drugs will lose their exclusivity in the coming years.
Another factor that makes a deal more likely is Marc de Garidel, CEO of Abivax‘s reputation is as a leader who can close deals. He previously led multi-billion dollar buyouts of biotech companies from pharmaceutical players such as AstraZeneca And Novo Nordisk.
Asked about a possible acquisition, de Garidel told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” in December that the company was still in “conversation with Big Pharma” but that its role was to develop the best possible drug.
Abivax plans to file for regulatory approval in the United States by the end of 2026, eyeing a potential launch by the third quarter of 2027, de Garidel said.
The company is well positioned to negotiate a favorable deal with a Big Pharma partner, said Damien Choplain, an analyst at Stifel.
“Given the strength of the Phase III results and the scarcity of comparable assets, we believe that a transaction could be completed before maintenance data is expected to be read out in the second quarter of 2026,” he said, referring to a second clinical trial of Obefazimod that tests its effectiveness over 44 weeks instead of just eight weeks.
Choplain added that most transactions in the IBD space have historically occurred for drug candidates in early stages of development. “Abivax meets all the conditions for a strategic acquisition,” he said.
Based on comparable transactions and a maximum revenue estimate of 3 billion euros, Abivax’s valuation could be between 12 billion and 20 billion euros ($14 billion to $23 billion), Choplain told CNBC.
Recent deals in the IBD space include from Merck acquisition of Prometheus for $10.8 billion; at Roche acquisition of Telavant for $7.1 billion; And Eli Lilly buys Morphic for $3.2 billion. These transactions all involved assets at a stage of development prior to Abivax’s obefazimod.
A potential first-rate treatment
Jefferies analyst Roger Song, who doesn’t cover Abivax per se but follows the IBD sector closely from Boston, said investor optimism comes from both a potential multibillion-dollar market for IBD treatments, as well as the drug candidate’s novel approach to it through multiple avenues.
It’s even considered the best potential treatment for ulcerative colitis, he told CNBC in December.
Results of Obefazimod trial in July surprised investors as many were unaware new mechanism it uses, microRNA, Song said.
A late-stage maintenance trial is expected in the second quarter of 2026.
Van der Schoot added that if Abivax is confident enough in the maintenance results, it can wait to be acquired after the trial is published, “because then it can ask for a higher price.”
